The ammo crisis: A national security wake-up call

• The U.S. faces a severe shortage of ammunition and critical minerals like antimony, essential for modern warfare, exposing vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base.
• The U.S. lacks domestic antimony production, relying entirely on foreign suppliers, with China controlling most of the global supply. This dependency has led to supply cuts and price surges, endangering military readiness.
• U.S. support for Ukraine has depleted its own ammunition stocks, with current production (30,000 shells/month) falling far short of the 100,000 shells needed by 2025.
• Companies like Military Metals Corp. are acquiring antimony projects to address shortages, but the Biden administration’s efforts to secure domestic sources of critical minerals have been slow and insufficient.
• The U.S. must invest in domestic mining, streamline regulations, and foster partnerships to secure critical minerals and ensure future military readiness, avoiding over-reliance on adversarial nations.

The United States is facing a national security crisis of unprecedented proportions as it grapples with a dire shortage of ammunition and critical minerals essential to modern warfare. This alarming situation, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitical tensions with adversaries like China and Russia, underscores the fragility of America’s defense industrial base. The Biden administration’s failure to address these vulnerabilities has left the nation dangerously exposed, raising urgent questions about the future of U.S. military readiness.

At the heart of this crisis is the scarcity of antimony, a little-known but indispensable metal used in the production of ammunition, missiles, and armored vehicles. Antimony’s strategic importance has surged in recent years, with prices skyrocketing nearly 300% in 2024 alone. Yet, despite its critical role in national defense, the United States does not produce a single ounce of this vital resource. Instead, it remains entirely dependent on foreign suppliers, with China controlling the lion’s share of global antimony production.

This dependency has become a ticking time bomb. China’s decision to cut antimony supplies to the U.S. earlier this year sent shockwaves through the defense industry, highlighting the perils of relying on adversarial nations for essential materials. The situation has only worsened as Western nations, including the U.S., embark on a $100 billion spending spree to restock their depleted arsenals. Without a domestic supply of antimony, the U.S. military faces the very real prospect of running out of ammunition—a scenario that could have catastrophic consequences for national security.

The Biden administration’s response has been sluggish at best. While the Pentagon has scrambled to boost production of 155mm artillery shells and other munitions, the defense industrial base remains ill-equipped to meet the surging demand. U.S. companies are currently producing just 30,000 shells per month, a far cry from the 100,000 shells needed by the end of 2025. Even with new production lines planned in Texas and other states, the gap between supply and demand continues to widen.

Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is growing increasingly dire. The U.S. has sent over 800,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition to Kyiv since the war began, depleting its own stockpile to dangerously low levels. Without sufficient ammunition, Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold their ground against Russian advances. As one senior U.S. defense official noted, “Ukrainians are struggling without ammunition.” The consequences of this shortfall could be devastating, not only for Ukraine but for the broader NATO alliance.

Low stocks of ammo only part of the problem

The crisis extends beyond ammunition. The Pentagon’s reliance on foreign suppliers for critical minerals like antimony has left it vulnerable to geopolitical manipulation. China’s dominance in the antimony market is a stark reminder of the risks of over-reliance on adversarial nations. The U.S. must act swiftly to secure domestic sources of antimony and other critical minerals to safeguard its military capabilities.

Enter companies like Military Metals Corp., which are stepping up to fill the void. The Canadian-based firm has acquired two of the world’s top ten antimony projects, including the historic Trojarova deposit in Slovakia and the West Gore mine in Nova Scotia. These projects represent a potential game-changer, offering a pathway to secure antimony supplies for both NATO and North American defense industries. With antimony prices forecast to exceed $50,000 per ton in 2025, the strategic importance of these projects cannot be overstated.

Yet, despite the urgency of the situation, the Biden administration’s efforts to address the crisis have been lackluster. While the U.S. government has allocated billions of dollars to secure domestic sources of critical minerals, progress has been slow. The administration’s focus on preparing for a future conflict with China has come at the expense of addressing immediate threats posed by Russia and other adversaries. This shortsighted approach is putting American lives and national security at risk.

The time for half-measures is over. The U.S. must take bold action to revive its defense industrial base, secure domestic sources of critical minerals, and ensure it never again finds itself at the mercy of foreign suppliers. This means investing in domestic mining operations, streamlining regulatory processes, and fostering public-private partnerships to accelerate the development of antimony and other strategic resources.

The ammunition crisis is a wake-up call for America. If the Biden administration continues to drag its feet, the consequences could be catastrophic. The U.S. cannot afford to be caught unprepared in a world where geopolitical instability is the new normal. It’s time to act—before it’s too late.

Sources include:

OilPrice.com

ForeignPolicy.com

TaskandPurpose.com